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General info on longest soccer streaks

To get longest streak, we need to look at last serie of games with the same outcome, and if this last serie of games is longer or equal to any other serie of games in a row with the same oucome appeard before then we've got longest streak.
I this case looking at game outcome is not just looking it as Home Win, Draw or Away Win, there are many types of outcomes, groups of outcomes, like Over 2,5 goals, Half Time Draw, Final Score 2:1, 0:0.., Both Teams Score...that are analyzed.

Games analyzed are just games played in selected league, if team was relegated or promoted from that league, games played in this period of time are skipped. Friendly, Play Offs and Cup games are also ignored.

Every game is analyzed by exploring 4 different game tables. When analyzing home team, analysis are made on Overall Home Team Games (1st Table) and games home team played only at Home Side (2nd Table), the same is for away team, analyzing Overall Away Team Games (3rd Table) and games away team played only Away (4th Table). Each table is analyzed dozends of times for just one game, searching for longest streak for each type of bet.

Most of analysis you find here are made on last 5 to 6 season (some leagues less) + current season games, it depends on history records I have available at this time. It depends on league, for major leagues I can do searching based on last 15 or more years. But at this moment I don't look so far back in history. Analyzing more seasons gives you less longest streaks or not so often, less seasons gives you more longest streaks. In some cases is better to analyze more games but then again if there was one too long streak somtime far back in past, all streaks after that won't be reported if they are only one game shorter. For example, Liverpool had streak of 8 games under 2,5 goal per game sometime in 1999, now never after that Liverpool had serie of under 2,5 longer than 5 games, 6th game was always over 2,5, in this type of scenarios is not so good to analyze too many seasons, becouse this only one too long streak, prevents other shorter streaks to be reported as longest. That's why I choose not to analyze too many games, sometimes that's good, somethimes is bad, but it all depends on type of bet analyzed.

Take look at the example below for better understanding.


Longest streak example
Home Team Bochum  
Away Team Hamburg  
Streak Type / Length Over 2,5 /7 Type of bet analyzed and Lenght of series of games with the same outcome in a row. Last serie of games is longest (longest when looking at last 143 games), longest streak. In this case last 7 games ended over 2,5 goals in a row.
Streak Appearance 2 How many times this Longest Streak of 7 games over 2,5 ocurred in last 143 games analyzed
Against streak bet Under 2,5 Bet against streak
Details    
Source Table Away Team (Only Away Games) This longest streak occurred analyzing only games Away Team played Away
Games 143 How many last games included in analysis


Breaking or backing streaks

The main question is, should we back the streak, place bet for streak to continue or bet against streak and hope that it will break like it did in the past.
There's no ultimate answer for this, but the first thing we need is to consider bet type on which streak is based on. There are 3 groups of streaks, 1. streaks mostly worth only breaking, 2. streaks to follow and 3. neutral streaks fore which we need to do more additional analysis before making decision how to use it.

Streaks to break
These streaks are mostly in lenght from 3-6 games in a row with the same outcome and appear frequently in streak form line but under condition that at least last 50 games are analyzed.

Here's the screenshot from Bet Record Longest Streaks Explorer 1.0, showing form based on bet type "Second Half Draw" prior to game between Lille vs. Lyon. As you can see longest streak is 4 games in lenght (last 4 red squares) and appeard already 5 times in the past, 6 times counting last one, and always break at 4th game. So if you believe statistics you would bet against Ssecond Half Draw, and won. Odds for "Second Half No Draw" bet were @ 1.7 before game started, maybe more in live betting. First half ended in a draw so it was possible to bet against Draw as the final result at the half time, the bet would be the same. Final score was 2:0

Screenshot from version 1.0

Another great example is game between Grasshoppers and Sion. In streak form we can see that Grassoppers managed to keep clean sheet maximum in 3 games in a row. Longest streak appeard 3 times total in last 163 Grassoppers games, this is good scenario to believe to statistics and place bet "Away Team Scores". Odds were @ 1.5. Final score was 0:2

Even better type of streak to break is streak based on bet type "Final Score" and "Halftime / Fulltime", the reason is because results don't usually repeat often, or better to say repeats are very rear.
After analyzing results of thousands of predictions, it's not surprising that bets against CORRECT SCORE and HALFTIME / FULLTIME have very high winning percentage, ranging from 93% to 97%.

Now this is where you can "grab" something! How?
But there's something you need, betting exchange, to be more precise Bet FairBet Fair, the best place to bet! At Bet Fair it's not only you can bet on something, you can bet AGAINST (LAY) ANYTHING!
All standard types of bets you can place at regular bookies, but there are lots of bets (bet types) you can't find anywhere than betting exchange. Laying / betting against an outcome is what exchange betting is all about.

BETTING AGAINST, LAYING CORRECT SCORE OR HALFTIME/FULLTIME

Let's say that winning percentage is 95%, that's geat, what more can you ask for? But what about the odds. You can Lay (bet against) correct score before game starts, but...the problem is low odds, or even worse, very low odds.

For example, you want to LAY 2:0 correct score, it depends on the game, who is playing and so on...but in our case LAY odds on correct score is 10.5, when you convert this to standard odds format thats equal to 1.10, pretty low, but not that low as it would be if you try to bet against 3:0 or 3:2.
You can stake 100€ to win 10€ or you can wait for game to start and take the advantage of live betting (game must be available for live betting). With lots of live games you'll have no problem with this at Bet FairBet Fair.
Odds are dramaticly changing when game goes live, you'll have to wait, and as the score changes the odds chages even more. So with odds against correct score before game starts @ 1.05, when in play, you can easily find odds @ 1.8 or more on that same bet. It all depends on situations on the field, time...It's on you to find the chance and grab it when the right moment comes.

When betting against Halftime/Fulltime the situation is similar. You can bet against HT/FT before game starts or go in play and place bet on final outcome after the first half ends, if game develops as expected.

IStreaks to follow
Are streaks with long serie of same outcomes, from 10 even to 30 games in a row. Information given from these type of streaks is mostly better to use to back streak rather to bet against it. These type of streaks are mostly related to bet types as, No win, Team Scores, Over 1,5, No Draw, No Clean sheet.


Bet-Record.com


Longest Soccer Streaks Resources

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